In perioada 6-7 martie 2013, Preşedintele IRSEA, ambasadorul (p) Gheorge Savuică, insotit de un cercetator al institutului, a participat la conferinţa „Retragerea forţelor SUA-NATO din Afganistan: Provocări și Opțiuni dincolo de 2014", eveniment desfăşurat la Islamabad, sub auspiciile National University of Modern Languages din capitala Pakistanului. Printre participanţi s-au numărat membri ai cercurilor academice pakistaneze şi internaţionale, membri ai corpului diplomatic, precum şi numeroşi studenţi, masteranzi şi doctoranzi din Pakistan
Lucrările conferinţei au fost axate pe subiecte din domeniul relaţiilor internaţionale, principalele paneluri vizând necesitatea promovării păcii şi a reconcilierii în Afganistan şi modalitatea prin care Pakistanul poate sprijini aceste demersuri.
În cadrul conferintei, presedintele IRSEA a prezidat ultimul panel, în final susţinând o alocuţiune pe respectiva temă.
Cu această ocazie, a fost încheiat un MOU cu National University of Modern Languages, Islamabad
Prezentam lucrarea sustinuta de reprezentantii IRSEA:
PAKISTAN WITHIN “THE NEW GREAT GAME"
By Ambassador (r) Gheorghe SAVUICA*
Abstract
This presentation consists of a brief analysis of the political situation and relations within, what specialists call “The New Great Game”, the focus being on PAKISTAN on the ground that this country is in the region a major actor with a vital personality of its own, having an immense need for peace, security and stability. Thus, the expectations as far as Pakistan is concerned are very high.
“The New Great Game” - a term very much debated in these days, is actually used to refer to the intricate relations between a relatively new emergent entity called “the pivot region” of the world politics and other great powers of the international political scene, such as Russia, China, The United States of America (USA), European Union (EU) and others such as India, Pakistan, Iran, which have massive (most importantly) economic interests in the above mentioned region. Certainly, the term could be accepted or not, but the presence of the power game is there.
“The pivot region”, as the Central Asia is being called[1] consists of five former USSR republics[2], namely: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Throughout the time, but especially over the last two decades the area has been an important focus point in the political scene, mainly due to its strategic geographical position, its vast resources such as gold, gas, oil and uranium and its latest developments and evolutions.
It is important to analyse how a regional country like Pakistan could approach to this renewed concept in the context of the new developments in the region. Cooperation and high level interlink with the countries in the Central Asia represent the very way to cope with the new trend and reality in this region.
Key words:Central Asia, Great Game, New Great Game, Pakistan, China, Russia, USA, EU.
1. The Great Game
“The Great Game”[3] is a term used to describe the political tension and struggle between the British and the Russian Empires over colonial Asia. It is ascribed to Arthur Connolly of the British East India Company, of which is believed to have been an intelligence officer.
Historically, “The Great Game” expands over a period of 94 years, beginning with the Russo-Persian Treaty of 1813 and ending with the Anglo-Russian convention of 1907. This was followed by a second, less intense phase of “The Great Game” following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. [4]
Going back to history, the expansion of the Russian Empire in Central Asia was considered by the British Empire a potential threat for the “Crown's Jewel”, one of the Britain's most important colonies, India. Within this scenario, the Russian Empire was suspected to use the Emirate of Afghanistan in order to invade India. These thoughts led to British military actions (the Anglo-Afghan wars: 1838, 1878 and 1919) aimed at gaining power over the Emirate of Afghanistan, by installing a British oriented government, and prevent, thus a possible Russian attempt of taking over the influence of India.
During this period, Afghanistan was always regarded as a buffer state, both by the Russian as well as by the British Empire, which competed against each other in order to grab a hold of this strategically placed country.
The second phase of “The Great Game” was marked by the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917 which nullified the signed treaties. After the third Anglo-Afghan war in 1919, Afghanistan and Soviet Russia signed a friendship treaty in May 1921, thus reducing the British influence in the area.
II. The circumstances and developments conducing to appearance of “The New Great Game” concept.
After the Second World War, we witnessed the disintegration of the British Empire and the collapse in 1991 of the Soviet Union. This left nonetheless an on-going competition between the West and the East over a highly desired area such as Central Asia. In the 1990s, the international analysts started to refer to this on-going competition as a “The New Great Game”[5].
Although the problematic position of Afghanistan (surnamed “The Graveyard of Empires”[6]), continues to remain a constant equation within the context of “The New Great Game”, one cannot help noticing a couple of distinguishing elements from the former “Great Game”.
Rather than being interested in geographical dominance, in order to prevent by British Empire the expansion of Russia in India, the focus of “The New Great Game” was set on Central Asia's deposit of natural resources. The development of regional petroleum politics in the five CARs and noonpolitik (based on soft power and the network-based geopolitics of knowledge rather than hard power and coercion) mark the difference between the two political “games” revolving around Central Asia.
The constant changes in the political and geographical scene also brought about the emergence of other parties manifesting great interest in Central Asia, such as: China, Pakistan, Iran, India, Turkey and others.
In order to obtain a relevant analysis, the observations on the matter made by Boris Rumer, the author of “Central Asia: The Challenges of Independence” are in our opinion important. Unlike the nineteenth century's “Great Game”, where in the competition for supremacy in Central Asia only two participants were involved, both, from the same category – states interested in the region, nowadays, the competition scene is a lot different.
Firstly, the number of actors aiming at a prize from “The New Great Game” is much larger (USA, Russia, China, EU, Pakistan, Iran, India, Turkey, Israel etc.), compared with the two empires (British and Russian) as it was the case in the old times.
Secondly, the type of actors participating in today's Central Asia events are more complex, and can be divided into two categories: state type and non-state type.
The non-state type include the supra-state organizations such as UN, NATO, OSCE, SCO, ECO etc. as well as the sub-state entities, such as NGOs, multinational companies, terrorist groups and criminal organizations.
The state actors are also divided into two categories: the states that do not belong to Central Asia, which are pursuing their interest in the region, and the five states, called CARs, which try to defend and promote their interests in order to secure a new and decent life for their peoples.
Taking this into consideration, we have to acknowledge that these five states have their own interests and goals, and that in the actual context they can position themselves in such a way, that they might influence the balance of power in the region.
III. Pakistan within “The New Great Game”
In our assessment, Pakistan and Central Asia are at the same time targets and actors of “The New Great Game”.
In both capacities, the former is very important from security point of view and the latter represents mainly a real attraction and supply hub for natural resources.
Indeed, these two aspects called the attention and interest of the major power involvement in the region thus reshaping “The Old Great Game” concept into a new form of interaction described by the specialists as “The New Great Game”.
A) Pakistan is confronted with a big challenge generated by “The New Great Game”. The most important issue in Pakistan’s foreign policy is security concern as this country has the most complex threat analyses of any state in the world as it was pointed out by Muqarrab Akbar in his paper entitled “Pakistan’s Foreign Policy: Internal Challenges in the New Millennium”.
A peaceful and stable Afghanistan remains a big problem in the Pakistan – New Great Game - CARs equation. Afghanistan's political and national security is thus of great importance to Pakistan. Both countries and the whole region could benefit, if peace is restored in Afghanistan.
No wonder, pacification of this area was and it continues to be, with tangible results, a constant feature of Pakistan’s foreign policy, based on a fine diplomacy, which is able to make a successful combination of the needs of its own national interests and the interests of the region in confronting with the challenges posed by “New Great Game”.
Islamabad is efficiently using the common elements of history, culture and actual needs of Pakistan, CARs and major powers.
In the aftermath of the 9/11 events Pakistan became what the USA called the “greatest non-NATO ally” in the war against terrorism and implicitly against the Taliban movement in the region. Pakistan involvement in that war brought to this country a lot of sufferings and loses of lives.
On the other hand, Pakistan's ideal location and strategic position, with opening to warm waters and ports which enable water trade, have been opened to the interest of landlocked countries in Central Asia.
One supporting element of a result oriented promotion of Pakistan's interests in the region, in general, and particularly with effect on power game, it is its orientation to develop partnerships with former and today's actors in Central Asia.
As an example, the substantial and robust partnership between Pakistan and China serves the best to this purpose of a developed, stable and peaceful region. This partnership, based on the traditional good relations between Islamabad and Beijing has been currently materialized in the plan for building a deep sea port in Gwadar, Baluchistan, Pakistan's highly strategic province, this being a vital link within the expansion of economic relations in Central Asia.
The Gwadar port would turn Pakistan in an energy “heaven” for Asia, ensuring a secure storage and shipment of Middle Eastern and Central Asian gas and oil supplies.
The delay in reaching a peaceful and stable Afghanistan remains a big problem in the Pakistan – CARs relationship. As an example, the gas pipeline plan from Turkmenistan to Pakistan depends on the situation and developments in Afghanistan - the only way for the passing trade route. Until political stability is reached in this important corridor, no move can be made.
The consolidation and diversification of the relations between Pakistan and the CARs are highly desirable and advantageous for both parties.
The CARs would profit of Pakistan's strategic position by gaining access to a sea trade route, while Pakistan's main interests in the CARs are strengthening the security and the economic cooperation, namely the import of energy resources.
In order to fulfil their interests, both Pakistan and the CARs are developing very good cooperation in The Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), whose main goals are to develop and improve the economic infrastructure and transportation system in the region. They appreciate and look as well into their requirement for a stable and secure region.
It is obvious that Pakistan is a valuable partner for the CARs, the proof in that direction being their support to have Pakistan in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). We agree with the Pakistani analysts that this country’s observer status in SCO is not enough.
B) The direct interlink between the two targets mentioned about represents, in our opinion, the most proper reply and solid reaction to the “The New Great Game” in Central Asia. A common policy of deeper cooperation and constant high level contacts will create the necessary and fruitful environment to promote and safeguard their national interests.
There are already many similarities between Pakistan position, needs and policy and that of Central Asian countries. We will highlight a few of them.
Although confronted with several post-independence problems, the CARs seek to secure their independence and territorial integrity and to expand their role internationally by a calculated policy of carefully approaching to the major participants in “The New Great Game”.
At the same time they are becoming more and more aware of their strategic position on the international stage.
These countries started to develop closer ties with the West, aiming at securing themselves of terrorist and extremist attempts in Central Asia. This policy is materialized in an active participation within the programs of Western organizations such as the NATO's Partnership for Peace but also in regional dominated organization such as Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and SCO.
IV. Conclusions
1. In the new millennium we should have witnessed the appearance of the concept of the “new grate construction” instead of the “new great game”.
The presence of developed countries in arias were developing countries are a major component, it might, eventually, contain positive elements. All these countries need direct foreign investments for their more rapid progress. They are also eager to become important participants if not actors in the globalization process.
So far, on one hand, we could distinguish in the region of Central Asia the actions to secure these countries from terror threats promoted by US and NATO, and on the other hand, economic cooperation on behalf of China, Pakistan, India, and Iran.
China became a major source of foreign investments, trade and aid in the region. It is increasing its influence in Central Asia through different projects.
A combination of the interests of all sides could indeed result in a “new great construction” opposing to the „new great game”. The key or the magic word for such wishful development is mutual advantage. For this, the principles inscribed in the United Nations Charter should be fully observed and implemented.
In the same context of a positive development conducing to a “great construction” we would like to underline the necessity of a mutually accepted approach to the current world problems, such as energetic, security or integration by taking into consideration, on equal terms, the interest of all parties concerned.
The Globalization process has given to “The New Great Game” the shape of a multi-party participation, which from the “power game” point of view, could be taken as a positive evolution comparing with the old “Great Game”, when outside component was formed mostly by two participants thus offering them bigger chances of dominance.
Nonetheless, the analysts constantly refer to the “New Great Game” as the real thing with real effects, which one may conclude we are confronted with the same old case of opposing a group of big countries to other smaller countries through a more refined ways and means. Grants and aids are on the top in this direction aiming at the actual result – the capture of natural resources.
Unfortunately, the last outcome seems to become similar to the old “Great Game” in the sense that the “suffering side” is the smaller countries. It could be a negative effect on the regional and world security.
2. In order to promote their interests, Pakistan, the CARs and other interested regional countries should try to create an organization by themselves and for themselves, thus becoming the driving force of the developments in the region as it is the situation in Southeast Asia, where the Association of Southeast Asia Nations – ASEAN attracted, by involvement, the big powers into “ASEAN game” making them to accept that ASEAN is the driving force in the region. In the case of Central Asia things are so far the other way round.
We can already witness that the regional countries started to think about the ways to consolidate their role. So far they are engaged in developing trilateral forms of cooperation, as it is the case of Pakistan- Iran- Afghanistan trilateral. The subject is worthy to be studied and followed up.
The fear of the old “Great Game” and the desire to strengthen their sovereignty and independence from former associations might go into the favourable political decision of establishing by CARs of a new type of relations or integration based on mutual cooperation and interest with the immediate neighbouring countries such as China, Pakistan, Iran and India.
3. The stability in Afghanistan is the core in this picture, particularly for Pakistan. The Pakistan – Afghanistan equation is playing now and in the years to come a decisive role for a interest - balanced coexistence between those in need for natural resources and the masters of the huge and important natural resources existing in the Central Asia.
A very careful and sensitive consideration has to be accorded to the role and influence of the nationality element which could become a factor of tension in the region, thus creating a disadvantage for cohesion of the regional countries.
4. A very important event is the withdrawal this year of the USA and coalition forces from Afghanistan, which might cause big changes in “The New Great Game”.
5. “The New Great Game” shows the importance of the region. It is coming as a competition from which the CARs and immediate neighbours could benefit out of it.
6. It is necessary to underline again the pivotal role as regional power of Pakistan within the game, which will become more obvious after peace and stability are established in Afghanistan.
*The Author is President of the Romanian Institute for European – Asian Studies –IRSEA** (as Founder), Former President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry Romania – Malaysia – CCIRM (as Founder) and Honorary Consul for Sri Lanka in Romania. Born in 1942. Graduated the Moscow Institute for International Relations. Specialist on South-East Asia, speaking with, University Attestation, Bahasa Indonesia , English and Russian. Career diplomat with 40 years of service, mainly in South and South East Asia + Cyprus, Finland and Estonia. Joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Romania in 1967, immediately after graduating the IRR and retired in 2006.
Out of 40 years of diplomatic activity more than 27 years he was Head of the Romanian Diplomatic Missions to: Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Philippines, Cyprus, Finland / Estonia, Pakistan and Indonesia. In the latter two countries he was Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Romania. Started his diplomatic career as Attaché in Indonesia, in 1970, and rounded it up in 2006 as Ambassador to Indonesia. In the MFA he worked only in Asia Pacific Department, with an exception of a short period in the Republic of Moldova Department. Started from desk officer to Deputy Director and Director for Asia – Pacific, Director for the Republic of Moldova, and Director General for ASIA – PACIFIC, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA AND LATIN AMERICA.
He wrote articles and gave interviews in mass media from Romania, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, The Philippines, Cyprus, Finland, Estonia and Pakistan and was invited as Key Note Speaker at the Institutes for Studies and International Relations, Universities and Military Academies from all these countries on bilateral relations, Romanian Foreign Relations, international and regional developments. Presently he is involved in his capacity as President of IRSEA in studies and support of the current approaching trend between Asia and Europe and Europe and Asia. He is also closely following the evolution and developments in the regional economic, political and strategic architecture in Asia.
In March 2013, he attended in Islamabad the International Conference on Afghanistan after USA and NATO exit in 2014.
He is Honorary Member of the Society of Asian Civilizations (SAC), PAKISTAN and of the Institute of Defence and Security Studies, INDONESIA as well as co- Founder of the Friendship Associations between Romania and Sri Lanka, Malaysia, the Philippines, Pakistan and Indonesia. Permanent member of the Photo Club ‘Nufarul’ from Oradea
Marital status: married to Stela SAVUICA.They have two daughters- Dana and Gabi, granddaughter- Julie and grandson- Alex
[1] Mackinder, H.J. - “The Geographical Pivot of History” in “Democratic Ideas and Reality”
[2] These countries are also known under the name Central Asian Republics (CARs)
[3] Mopkirk, Peter - “The Great Game. The struggle for Empire in Central Asia”
[4] Hopkirk, Peter - “The Great Game revisited?”
[5] Edwards, Matthew - “The New Great Game and the new great gamers: Disciples of Kipling and Mackinder”
[6] Jones, Seth G. - “In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan”
